University Calendar

Jessica Conway, Penn State University, presents this seminar

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Typically suspension of therapy is rapidly followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. However, case reports suggest that initiating ART early after infection may delay viral rebound, for months, years, or maybe permanently, after ART suspension. We will discuss multi-type, branching process models to gain insight into these post-treatment dynamics. Li et al. (2016) report that the size of the expressed HIV reservoir and a patient’s drug regimen correlate with the time between ART suspension and viral rebound to detectable levels. We incorporate this information and viral rebound times to parametrize our models. The results we will discuss represent first steps towards a model that can make predictions of a patient's rebound time distribution based on patient characteristics, and help identify patients with expected long viral rebound delays. We will further discuss epidemiological implications of treatment suspension.