Montclair Study: Data Suggests Political Posts on X are Inconsistent with Voter Behavior

A study from Montclair State University researchers in the Joetta Di Bella and Fred C. Sautter III Center for Strategic Communication in the College of Communication and Media shows that the volume of political posts on X (formerly Twitter) may not reflect actual voter behavior.  The gap between post volume for candidates versus actual votes was approximately 40% in the analyzed case of the New Jersey gubernatorial election.  Contributing factors to this gap may include the volume of ostensibly “American” political accounts that are foreign sourced, bot-based activity, and overall platform infrastructure/algorithms.

Highlights from the study include:

• 108,640 posts for Mikie Sherrill with 230,277 posts for Jack Ciattarelli in the period of 10/22/2025 to 10/29/2025.
• Nearly 5X the total number of posts for Ciattarelli over Sherrill on Election Day.
• 15.5% more posts on X expressing a positive sentiment for Ciattarelli.
• Despite this, final vote totals for the election favored Sherrill by nearly 14%.

“The data suggests that social media users should be cautious about assuming what they see online represents the feelings and actions of people in the real world, especially on the X platform,” said a study author Dr. Bond Benton, Professor of Communication at Montclair State University.

The full study, which can be found here, was conducted by Dr. Bond Benton, Dr. Yi Luo, and Dr. Jin-A Choi from the Joetta Di Bella and Fred C. Sautter III Center for Strategic Communication.

###

Media Contact: Keith Green, greenk@montclair.edu, 973-655-3701

About the College of Communication and Media: The College of Communication and Media (CCOM) offers a range of dynamic programs to a talented and diverse student population of over 2,000. Offering degrees in advertising, animation and visual effects, communication and media studies, film and television, journalism and digital media, social media and public relations, sports communication and an online, asynchronous MA devoted to strategic communication and media, the College prepares the next generation of communication and media practitioners and leaders. Founded in 2012 and housed in world-class, state-of-the-art facilities just 12 miles from New York City, the College is the only program in the country that offers the following opportunities for students: a radio station (WMSC), newspaper (The Montclarion), strategic communications agency (Hawk Communications), sports network (Red Hawk Sports Network) streaming platform (Hawk+), digital newsroom (News Lab) and studio, and a social media listening center (Joetta DiBella and Fred C. Sautter III Center for Strategic Communication). The College also has a Student Success team, including dedicated Career Services and Advising professionals who prepare students for the internship and job search process. Student projects and programs have recently received national recognition from PRSSA’s Bateman Competition, an Edward R. Murrow Award, several Marconi Award nominations, and College Television Awards (“Student Emmy” awards) from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences. The College is also home to the Center for Cooperative Media, which serves the public by working to grow and strengthen local journalism and media. Through $7.1M in grants awarded over the last five years, the Center focuses on collaboration in journalism, media equity, media coaching and training, civic science and research. The Center is also home to the NJ Civic Information Consortium, the largest funder of media and journalism in  New Jersey, granting more than $10M over the last five years to support independent local media, journalism and training initiatives.